The Oklahoma City Thunder are 7-point favorites for Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on Sunday, tipping off at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The Nuggets lead the series 2-1.
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Thunder vs. Nuggets Predictions for Sunday
Our computer model for this matchup expects a final result of Thunder 120, Nuggets 112.
- Moneyline Pick: Thunder (-281)
- Total Pick: Over 228.5 (computer predicts 231.8 points)
- Pick ATS: Thunder (-7)
Recent Thunder vs. Nuggets Matchups
| Date | Favorite | Spread | Total | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/9/2025 | Thunder | -6.5 | 232 | -266 | +217 | 113-104 DEN |
| 5/7/2025 | Thunder | -10 | 229.5 | -488 | +371 | 149-106 OKC |
| 5/5/2025 | Thunder | -10.5 | 228.5 | -481 | +366 | 121-119 DEN |
| 3/10/2025 | Thunder | -8.5 | 240.5 | -403 | +315 | 140-127 DEN |
| 3/9/2025 | Thunder | -7.5 | 243.5 | -311 | +249 | 127-103 OKC |
| 11/6/2024 | Thunder | -7 | 224.5 | -256 | +215 | 124-122 DEN |
| 10/24/2024 | Nuggets | -2 | 228.5 | -134 | +113 | 102-87 OKC |
| 1/31/2024 | Thunder | -5.5 | 223 | -221 | +180 | 105-100 OKC |
| 12/29/2023 | Nuggets | -1.5 | 237.5 | -125 | +105 | 119-93 OKC |
| 12/16/2023 | Nuggets | -5 | 237.5 | -206 | +171 | 118-117 OKC |
| 10/29/2023 | Nuggets | -3.5 | 230.5 | -163 | +139 | 128-95 DEN |
Thunder 2024-25 Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City's ATS record is 54-26-2 this season.
- The Thunder are 37-18-1 against the spread when favored by 7 points or more this season.
- Oklahoma City's games have hit the over in 46 out of 82 opportunities (56.1%).
- This season, the Thunder have been favored 79 times and won 66, or 83.5%, of those games.
- Oklahoma City has a record of 46-8, a 85.2% win rate, when it's favored by -281 or more by oddsmakers this season.
Nuggets 2024-25 Betting Trends
- Denver is 38-44-0 against the spread this year.
- The Nuggets have a 4-2 record against the spread this season when an underdog by 7 points or more.
- Denver's games have gone over the point total 49 out of 82 times (59.8%).
- The Nuggets are 10-10 in games they were the underdog on the moneyline (winning 50% of those games).
- When playing as a moneyline underdog with odds of +227 or longer, Denver has gone 3-2 (60%).
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Thunder vs. Nuggets Injury Report
Thunder
Thunder:
Nikola Topic: Out For Season (Acl)
Nuggets
Nuggets:
DaRon Holmes: Out For Season (Achilles)
Thunder vs. Nuggets Game Time and TV Channel
- Game day: Sunday, May 11, 2025
- Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ABC
- Location: Denver, Colorado
- Arena: Ball Arena
- Live stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
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