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The Oklahoma City Thunder (49-15) are heavily favored (by 14.5 points) to build on a three-game home win streak when they host the Golden State Warriors (32-30) on Saturday, March 7, 2026 at 8:30 p.m. ET.
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Thunder vs. Warriors Predictions for Saturday
Our computer projection model for this contest calls for a final tally of Thunder 120, Warriors 108.
- Moneyline Pick: Thunder (-870)
- Total Pick: Over 219.5 (computer predicts 228.0 points)
- Pick ATS: Warriors (+14.5)
Recent Thunder vs. Warriors Matchups
| Date | Favorite | Spread | Total | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/2/2026 | Thunder | -13.5 | 226.5 | -735 | +517 | 131-94 OKC |
| 12/2/2025 | Thunder | -11.5 | 223.5 | -562 | +411 | 124-112 OKC |
| 11/11/2025 | Thunder | -7.5 | 227.5 | -312 | +249 | 126-102 OKC |
| 1/29/2025 | Thunder | -9.5 | 223.5 | -444 | +346 | 116-109 GS |
| 11/27/2024 | Thunder | -4.5 | 225.5 | -185 | +154 | 105-101 OKC |
| 11/10/2024 | Thunder | -6.5 | 227.5 | -258 | +210 | 127-116 GS |
Thunder 2025-26 Betting Trends
- So far this season, Oklahoma City has put together a 31-33-0 record against the spread.
- When they have played as at least 14.5-point favorites this season, the Thunder are 10-11 against the spread.
- Out of Oklahoma City's 62 games with a set total, 35 have hit the over (56.5%).
- The Thunder have entered the game as favorites 60 times this season and won 47, or 78.3%, of those games.
- This season, Oklahoma City has won 17 of its 19 games, or 89.5%, when favored by at least -870 on the moneyline.
Warriors 2025-26 Betting Trends
- So far this season, Golden State has put together a 28-34-0 record against the spread.
- The teams have combined to hit the over in 36 of Golden State's 62 games with a set total.
- The Warriors have gone 8-13 in games they were listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 38.1% of those games).
- Golden State has not yet played as a moneyline underdog of +590 or longer.
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Thunder vs. Warriors Injury Report
Thunder
Thunder:
Thomas Sorber: Out For Season (Knee),
Alex Caruso: Out (Hip),
Ajay Mitchell: Out (Abdomen),
Branden Carlson: Out (Back),
Jalen Williams: Out (Hamstring),
Isaiah Hartenstein: Out (Calf)
Warriors
Warriors:
Stephen Curry: Out (Knee),
Jimmy Butler: Out For Season (Knee),
Kristaps Porzingis: Questionable (Illness),
De'Anthony Melton: Questionable (Knee),
Gary Payton II: Probable (Ankle),
Moses Moody: Out (Wrist),
Seth Curry: Questionable (Sciatic Nerve),
Will Richard: Questionable (Ankle)
Thunder vs. Warriors Game Time and TV Channel
- Game day: Saturday, March 7, 2026
- Game time: 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ABC
- Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
- Arena: Paycom Center
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